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What the numbers say

Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 1:39 pm
by Blithe Morning
According to obesity mathematician Carson Chow in the article A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity, the numbers show obesity is caused by the fact that as a culture we simply have too much food.

He also says the numbers show it takes a long time, like three years, for weight loss to stick since it takes that long for the body to reach a new equilibrium. I wish he would have explained a little more about that. I guess the take home message is don't expect this to be quick.

All of the mathematical findings support the No S process.

Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 4:09 pm
by Miyabi
I wish he'd explained that point more too, but it looks like he wants us to use the simulator to learn the lesson. Maybe some of the more data-minded on this board can spend some time with it and get back to us. I spent a few minutes with the simulator, only to learn the shocking news that I can't eat very much and moderate exercise has little impact on my calorie budget.

Re: What the numbers say

Posted: Tue May 15, 2012 7:33 pm
by vmsurbat
Blithe Morning wrote: He also says the numbers show it takes a long time, like three years, for weight loss to stick since it takes that long for the body to reach a new equilibrium. I wish he would have explained a little more about that. I guess the take home message is don't expect this to be quick.

All of the mathematical findings support the No S process.
Well, interestingly enough, now that I'm at the 3+ years mark of successful NoSing, I've had more compliments/comments about my weightloss in the last two months than in the three years previous. BUT, I lost 30 pounds the first year, 10 the second and third years (so 50 lbs total--which put me into a normal BMI category, FWIW) and the past six months or so, I've lost another 4 pounds. I never expected to lose those four pounds.

But in my OWN mind (and now, apparently in others' as well), I finally see myself as a "normal" weight person, not a shrunken fat person. I buy clothes styles that I formerly shunned (eg. something with a belted waist, or shorter sleeves). So maybe others have noticed the style change more than the weight change.

It has been something interesting for me to ponder!

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 1:09 am
by r.jean
"Shrunken fat person...". That definitely brings a visual..

I lost 45 lbs in year one and have only lost 2 lbs since the beginning of this year (4 1/2 months). Yet, I too have recently had a lot of compliments. I think we do have to settle into our new body..both physically and emotionally.

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 7:06 am
by Amy3010
This is so interesting - thanks for sharing it! It definitely supports No-S as a realistic way to create the habits that are going to get long term healthy results. Slow and steady looks like the only reasonable way to go...

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 10:01 am
by wosnes
Miyabi wrote:I spent a few minutes with the simulator, only to learn the shocking news that I can't eat very much and moderate exercise has little impact on my calorie budget.
I haven't tried to use the simulator, but several years ago I realized that I was either going to be a little on the heavy side or always "on a diet" and starving.

The last paragraph of his article reminded me of Pollan's mantra: Eat food. Not too much. Mostly plants.

"This is probably the most unwelcome advice of all," he wrote. And it is.

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 4:19 pm
by ~reneew
When he started he didn't even know what a calorie was? I agree with much that he says and I do think that the simple numbers should be looked at, but I really wonder what someone who obviously never had a weight issue, could really know about the issue. I guess I hate to take advice from someone who has never been there. Maybe if he works with psychologists and psychiatrists???

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 5:33 pm
by Amy3010
I know what you mean, but perhaps that has enabled him to be completely objective and only look at it as a mathematical problem? I mean we all know that sometimes the math just doesn't seem to compute when it comes to gaining and losing weight, right? :wink:

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 9:03 pm
by reinhard
Great article!

One number that Dr. Chow didn't mention is this interview is the one his colleague down the road at Harvard, Dr. Cutler, reported in his paper "Why Have Americans become more Obese?", which I think this has enormous practical implications (stop or greatly reduce snacking!):

http://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/2640583
Some- what surprisingly, most of the increase in calories is from caiories consumed during snacks. Dinnertime caiories have actually fallen somewhat. The increase in caloric intake is because of greater frequency of eating, not eating more at any one sitting. In calculations not shown in the table, we find that the number of snacks in the typical day increased dramatically over this period. Whereas only about 28 percent of people in 1977-1978 reported two or more snacks per day, 45 percent reported two or more snacks in 1994-1996. The average number of snacks per day increased by 60 percent over this period, thus more snacks per day—rather than more calories per snack—account for the majority ofthe increase in calories from snacks.
When he started he didn't even know what a calorie was?
Come to think of it, I'm not sure I do either...

Aha!

From:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calorie
The large calorie, kilogram calorie, dietary calorie, nutritionist's calorie or food calorie (symbol: Cal)[2] approximates the energy needed to increase the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1 °C. This is exactly 1,000 small calories or about 4.2 kilojoules.